Another Injustice, Another Petition

If you love Dacquiri Ice Baskin Robbins ice cream, hold on to your effing hat, because it's gone.

Yes, Baskin Robbins DISCONTINUED Dacquiri Ice, and has apparently replaced it with a worse-tasting version of a Lime Ice flavor.

People are organizing. Sign the petition to bring the original Dacquiri Ice flavor back.

I hate to say it...

But I told you so.

(Edwards endorses Obama).

Gaza Youth Phonebank for Obama

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are phonebanking for Obama.



I'm not saying Obama can't win Florida, a state Gore nearly won in 2000. I'm just saying Obama will certainly lose the Sunshine State. Wait, that's the same thing.

Every Member For Themselves

Congressional districts are a mix of semi-competitive and very safe geographic areas for their incumbents.

Flipping a seat is an incredibly tough job, both because of the demographics of a district and because of the incumbency advantage that may carry over to the next candidate in the same party.

And yet, Democrats have not just taken back the House since 2006, they've taken some VERY red districts in the last few months. Dennis Hastert's old seat, a seat in Lousiana, and now, the First District of Mississippi, where Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004.

The Chairman of the NRCC had this to say:

I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election.

By encouraging all GOP candidates to take stock of their campaigns, I think he's indicating that you should feel free to run against the Bush Administration, Iraq policy, and whatever it takes to win. In other words, consider yourself alone in your individual fight for your district.

I can't say I disagree with the strategy. But it certainly indicates the potential apocalypse for the GOP Congressional numbers in November.

West Virginia Predictions

Hillary is polling between 15 and 43 points ahead of Obama, so I think I'm safe predicting a victory for her in the Wild and Wonderful State.

I'll call it in the high 20's. Probably 26 to 29 points in favor of Hillary.

Still, even that kind of victory will net her only a handful of delegates.

Hard to Resell this Car

Hillmobile.

I wonder if I can get a Buckley or Churchill car.

Andy's Excuse

I paid 1.99 on iTunes to buy this sketch last year. Now it's free on Hulu.



Brilliantly done.

John Mayer is Humorous

John Mayer shows you how a song is made.



Hilarious. How about something we can all relate to?

Hillary's Last Chance

I thought of this yesterday, but didn't have the time to post it.

Hillary needs to go all out in Oregon. The theory is better stated here.

[T]here is one last chance for the Clinton campaign: make Oregon definitive. Everyone knows she's going to win Kentucky and West Virginia. Everyone expects her to lose in Oregon. If she throws down the gauntlet and says: "Oregon is it. Obama has home field advantage. If he wins, I'm out. If I win, we go all the way to the convention. Game on."

Who, really, could resist? Certainly not the cable networks! And the state is home to millions of white people.

Agreed. You may not see this strategy until after West Virginia next Tuesday, but I think it is her last opportunity to shake up the race. It probably won't make a difference, but as her chances go from remote to minuscule, this is probably her best option.

Obama to "Declare Victory" May 20

After losing West Virginia and Kentucky, but winning Oregon handily, Obama plans to "declare victory" on May 20th.

Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold—1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included.

...

While the nature of that declaration of victory is “still developing,” in the advisor’s words, the Obama campaign contends that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates should be the party nominee.

Let's leave Florida and Michigan out of it for a second.

Winning a majority of the available pledged delegates is a great accomplishment. And indeed, it's a persuasive argument to a good deal of superdelegates who don't think they should overturn the winner of the pledged delegate counts.

But by no means is it "victory," in the sense of "winning" the nomination of the Democratic party. Superdelegate votes are the mathematical equivalent of pledged delegates, and the pledged delegate winner does not always win the nomination (see 1968).

There's no getting around it. To win the nomination, you need 2,025. Not a different number, that you then use to argue to superdelegates they should vote for you.

Sure, maybe it's politically useful to declare victory, and to continue noting that you hold an insurmountable pledged delegate lead, but the statement itself is misleading. It indicates that you've clinched the nomination, when you haven't.

And declaring something that isn't true is sad and embarrassing. I hope the story is wrong.

Intrade Success

In all the action that happened last night, it's easy to forget about some things. Like the fact that I made hella money.

1. In all the flux as Lake County was waiting to come in, I sold my Obama-wins-Indiana stock for 4.50 a share (I bought it for less than 4).

2. I sat on my Obama-wins-NC stock and it paid 10 per share (I bought it for about 9.2).

3. After the night was over, Obama-wins-Kentucky started going pretty high. I bought it for 1.45 a week ago, and sold it at 3.0.

I recommend Intrade, though it takes quite some time to actually get the money into the system, and there are some transaction fees. Still, as a means of having fun and feeling good about your political predictions, it works.